#36 AI in 2030
This week, I share a WSJ article about AI in 2030 and predict how AI will change dealmaking in 2030.
AI will change the world, but how will it change M&A? I want to focus on AI’s impact on M&A in this newsletter. I am not an expert on either M&A or AI, but I want to learn about both topics and how they intersect. I thought there might be others in my situation (or people who are experts in one field or the other) who would find information on M&A and AI helpful in their careers, so I created this newsletter to track and share what I learn.
WSJ Article: It’s the Year 2030. What Will Artificial Intelligence Look Like?
The Wall Street Journal recently published a few stories on AI that I wanted to share. In this post, I will share an interesting article about AI in 2030 and give my predictions on how AI will impact M&A in 2030.
AI Quiz
The article begins with a quiz testing the reader’s AI knowledge. I scored a 6/10 which is . . . disappointing. Either way, it was fun to try to answer questions like, “How many users does ChatGPT have.” I definitely learned a thing or two! Please feel free to reach out with your score!
Expert Opinions
The article is a collection of expert opinions on what AI will be like in the year 2030. Here is a (not AI) summary of some of the more interesting ones.
“We overestimate technology in the short run, but underestimate it in the long run.”
One expert believes that 2030 will be the “medium run” where AI will have progressed significantly from today, but not reach AGI or outperform humans.
Another expert thinks that by 2030, the initial AI bubble will have burst, leading to a significant slowdown in investment and technological progress. He suggests that genuine innovation, not just better chips, is needed to produce human-caliber AI.
Transformation, not job loss.
One expert wrote that the late 2020s will be an era of transformation and productivity gains, where businesses that methodically apply AI to particular tasks inside their business will thrive. While some jobs will disappear, others will emerge and many more will change. AI increases productivity for those who intelligently embrace it.
Continuing with the theme of transformation, the next expert compares AI to the internet.
In the early 2000s, the Internet disrupted the business community. Companies that embraced the internet won (think Apple, Microsoft, and Google). Companies that refused to embrace the internet lost.
The expert believes that by 2030, we will have a better idea of who will win and who will lose. The winners will have this in common—AI integrated into employees’ everyday activities.
AI Agents
Two experts agree that AI agents will be a huge part of our personal and work lives in 2030. One predicts that personal AI agents will take data from wearable technology (like an Apple watch) and learn our preferences. Currently, AI predicts the most likely outcome for all people, but in the future, AI will predict the most likely outcome for you.
One expert even predicts the rise of business AI agents who can negotiate and make decisions for a business.
I largely agree with these experts. 2030 is not far away, and it is hard to imagine AI taking over the planet in the next five years. So what will the world look like in five years? I agree that real AI progress depends on more people adopting it for everyday tasks. I predict that there will be a great increase in everyday AI usage as the technology progresses. I also agree that AI will transform jobs and disrupt many industries. This makes it even more important to learn about AI now!
What impact will AI have on deals in 2030?
I like the quote mentioned by one of the experts, “We overestimate tech in the short run but underestimate it in the long run”
I think the “short-run” position on AI in M&A is that it will completely take over dealmaking. As I consistently mention, I do not believe that will happen. Dealmaking is a human endeavor, filled with emotions, unpredictable behavior, and unique customs. It would be difficult for AI to replace the humans involved in M&A.
The “long-run” position is unclear. While it’s extreme to believe that AI will take over all of M&A, there is no doubt that AI will change M&A—it already has! The question is how AI changes M&A. In my opinion, future AI tools will automate some of the M&A process. For example, AI will reduce lengthy due diligence processes. Instead of reading hundreds of documents, a reliable AI model will sift through the documents and produce a summary of potential issues in minutes. Another example is negotiating documents. By 2030, I predict that AI agents will be good enough to understand a party’s negotiating position and negotiate documents on behalf of a party. There would be a negotiating bot (like the present-day M&A lawyer) that would refer issues to the correct expert bot (like present-day specialists) and the negotiating bot would negotiate a document based on expert feedback. Humans would become prompting experts to “program” the AI bots to have the correct position.
Who knows—I may be underestimating AI! Time will tell what actually happens, but it is exciting to see how this technology is developing and all of the impacts it will have.
About me
My name is Parker Lawter, and I am a law student pursuing a career as an M&A lawyer. I am in my last semester of law school, and with some extra time on my hands, I decided to create this newsletter. I hope it is informative and helpful to anyone who reads it! I am not an expert at either M&A or AI, but I am actively pursuing knowledge in both areas, and this newsletter is a part of that pursuit. I hope you’ll join me!
Follow me on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/parker-w-lawter-58a6a41b
All views expressed are my own!